Evolution of Global Soybean Trade Flows and Share Reconfiguration Amid Tariff Policy Fluctuations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62051/yvh9y737Keywords:
Gravity Model; Trade Diversion; Price Elasticity.Abstract
In response to the United States' proposed “reciprocal tariff” policy scheduled for implementation in 2025, this study aims to quantitatively assess its far-reaching impact on the global soybean trade landscape. Based on monthly high-frequency data from 2000 to 2025, an integrated assessment framework combining an extended gravity model with demand price elasticity is constructed to estimate long-term structural parameters and short-term market responses. Simulation results reveal that tariff barriers trigger significant trade diversion effects, causing U.S. soybean exports to China to plummet by approximately 25% and market share to shrink. Meanwhile, Argentina leverages its low-cost advantage to surge exports by over threefold, emerging as the primary beneficiary of market restructuring, while Brazil maintains its dominant position. This study innovatively integrates long-term and short-term factors, revealing the underlying logic by which unilateral tariff policies reshape the international agricultural competitive landscape through supply chain substitution mechanisms.
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